SPY 14-Day Iron Condor Tracker — June 15, 2026

SPY holds at $753.55, above the 20-day simple moving average of $741.10. The daily chart shows a measured advance with relatively narrow price bars and orderly pullbacks — a quiet uptrend where realized volatility has been subdued. Realized volatility registers at the 25th percentile, a compressed reading that places options in the cheaper tier of the trailing 12-month distribution. In this zone, the difference between implied and realized volatility tends to narrow, so the edge comes from precision rather than premium magnitude.

Writing an Iron Condor in this low-premium environment requires a calibrated view of the edge. The credit collected is modest, which narrows the breakeven envelope, but the statistical case remains intact: implied volatility tends to overstate future realized movement even in tranquil conditions. Profit does not depend on a large directional swing — the position benefits when the underlying meanders between the short strikes through the holding period.

The 14-day ATR of $6.53 provides the distance metric for strike placement. Anchoring the short leg approximately 1.5 ATRs above and below the current price creates a zone that has historically contained the majority of two-week price paths. The wings are sized to bound the maximum loss while preserving a credit-to-risk ratio that acknowledges the compressed volatility environment.

SPY's 12 prior settled cycles provide an empirical reference point for the strikes framed today.

About SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

SPY is the most liquid US equity ETF, tracking the S&P 500 index of large-cap US companies. As a diversified basket, SPY exhibits lower realized volatility than individual equities, which means iron condor wings are narrower in percentage terms and net credits are smaller. However, the diversification benefit reduces the probability of large gap moves, and SPY's deep option market ensures tight execution across all strikes. SPY iron condors serve as a benchmark for comparing single-stock condor performance on this site.

Quick Read

SPY closed at $753.55 with a 14-day ATR of $6.53. Implied volatility ranks at the 25th percentile of its trailing 12-month range. Price remains above the 20-day SMA of $741.10, reflecting constructive daily-chart structure. The iron condor's upper breakeven of $767.17 sits 1.8% above spot; the lower breakeven of $742.83 is 1.4% below. Risk is capped at $2.83 per spread.

Track Record (All-Time Settled)

Across 12 settled 14-day Iron Condor setups on SPY, the structure resolved inside the short strikes 33% of the time, for a cumulative realized result of $-908.88 per spread.

Probability at Open

Probabilities are Futu-derived for the 14-day contracts in this setup.

Methodology Snapshot

Full methodology →

Active Setups

Settlement History

Related Broad ETF Tickers

• DIA
• IWM
• QQQ

Frequently Asked Questions

What is an iron condor?

An iron condor is a four-leg, market-neutral options strategy that combines a bull put spread and a bear call spread on the same underlying, both with the same expiration date. The structure profits when the underlying price closes between the two short strikes at expiration. Maximum profit is limited to the net credit received when opening the position; maximum loss is capped at the wing width minus that credit. The iron condor is a premium-selling strategy — the trader collects option premium upfront and keeps it if the underlying stays within the defined range.

What does ATR-14 measure?

Average True Range (ATR) is a volatility indicator that measures the average range between a security's daily high and low over a specified period, adjusted for gaps. The "14" refers to the 14-day lookback window. On this site, ATR-14 is computed using Wilder's smoothing method: the initial value is the simple average of the first 14 true ranges, and each subsequent value is (prior ATR × 13 + current TR) / 14. ATR anchors every iron condor strike — the short call is placed at roughly 1.5 ATRs above the spot price, and the short put at roughly 1.5 ATRs below, providing a statistical buffer around the expected two-week price range.

How is implied volatility (IV) used in strike selection?

Implied volatility represents the market's forward-looking expectation of price movement, derived from current option prices. Higher IV translates into wider expected ranges and richer option premiums. On this site, IV percentile — where current IV ranks within its trailing 12-month range — determines how strikes are framed. When IV percentile is high (above 70), premiums are rich relative to recent history, which favors premium-selling strategies. When IV percentile is low (below 30), premiums are compressed and iron condors become less attractive on a risk-reward basis. The system publishes setups regardless of IV percentile to maintain a consistent tracking methodology, but the IV context is included on every ticker page.

What does "hold to expiration" mean in this data?

Every iron condor setup tracked on this site follows a strictly passive, hold-to-expiration rule. The position is opened at the algorithmically determined strikes and held until the target exit date — normally 14 calendar days after entry. No early exit, no stop-loss, no adjustment is applied. The win condition is simple: if the underlying's closing price on the target exit date falls between the short put strike and the short call strike (inclusive), the setup is recorded as "won." Otherwise it is recorded as "lost." This rule-based approach ensures that every setup is evaluated consistently, making the win-rate and P&L data comparable across tickers and over time.

What are the risks of iron condor strategies?

Iron condors carry defined but real risk. While maximum loss is capped per spread, the probability of loss is not zero. Risks include: (1) Gap risk — the underlying can gap through a short strike overnight, resulting in a loss larger than the initial credit received. (2) Pin risk — the underlying may close exactly at a short strike at expiration, creating assignment uncertainty. (3) Liquidity risk — wide bid-ask spreads can erode the net credit and increase transaction costs beyond modeled assumptions. (4) Volatility expansion — a sudden spike in IV can widen losses on open positions even if the underlying has not breached a short strike. (5) Early assignment — American-style options can be exercised before expiration, which is not modeled in this backtest harness. This site's data reflects a passive research methodology; actual live trading involves additional considerations including margin requirements, position sizing, and active risk management.

How are option prices quoted on this site?

All option prices are sourced from FutuOpenD, Futu's local market data gateway, connected to real-time US options quotes during market hours. Short legs are priced at the bid (the worst realistic fill when selling options to open), and long legs are priced at the ask (the worst realistic fill when buying options for protection). This conservative quoting approach means the net credit shown on each ticker page — (short call bid + short put bid) - (long call ask + long put ask) — represents a plausible execution level rather than an idealized mid-price. The actual fill a trader would receive depends on their broker, order routing, and market conditions at the time of execution.

Where does the data come from?

All underlying price data, option chains, and IV analytics are sourced from FutuOpenD via the futu-api Python SDK. Daily OHLCV bars are cached in a local SQLite database for ATR and SMA computation. The site is updated automatically each US trading day after market close. Historical setups are never retroactively edited — the ledger is append-only and publicly viewable on the site. For full details on formulas, thresholds, and edge cases, see the methodology page.